The Not-Quite Swamis: Playoff Prognostication
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Washington (+9) at Seattle

STEVE: Seattle is a paper tiger facing off against a team which has been hotter than any other throughout the league over the last two months. Although Seattle is 8-0 at home their defense will be susceptible to the pounding of Clinton Portis and the Washington ground game. In their previous matchup, the Hawks had their wings clipped by the aggressive Redskins team in overtime. The smart money should have you expecting similar results again.

KEVIN: A much nobler and wiser gambler than I ' espn.com's Bill Simmons ' laid out 15 rules of gambling on the NFL playoffs, and I will invoke many of them in this week's predictions. 'Only pick an underdog or a road team if you're convinced it has a chance to win the game outright,' Simmons advises. The Redskins do play great defense, and they did beat Seattle in the regular season. For some reason, though, I just can't get on board with the whole 'Washington's D and Brunell will keep this one close' mentality. I don't give them any chance to win outright, so I can't pick the 'Skins. I like the Seahawks 24-13.

New England (+3) at Denver

STEVE: Watch out NFL, here come the Pats. This team began their roll at just the right time. Beating every team in the month of December, the Patriots positioned themselves for an opening round home game in the bitter chill of Gillette Stadium. The Pats humiliated the Jaguars in the opening round game. New England has been given points only twice this season, and they are 1-1. The one loss came against Denver. But do not doubt that Belichick has made his eyes red watching the film of the loss and has found a weakness to exploit this time around.

KEVIN: Simmons' rule no. 5: 'Don't bet heavily against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick under any circumstances. They are 10-0 all-time in the playoffs. 10 wins and no losses! That is reason enough to take New England, and I haven't even mentioned Jake Plummer. The Plummer of old shows up just in time for a game-changing miscue. Here's a road team that will win outright. Take the Pats and the points in Saturday's game.

Pittsburgh (+9 1/2) at Indianapolis

STEVE: For years Bill Simmons believed it would be the Red Sox year, and one year he was right. Maybe one time his betting rules would be right too. It will not be this game. I believe the Colts will come out flat in the first quarter, the Steelers will put points on the board and even if they can not come out of the game with the victory they will be able to cover the 9 ??.

KEVIN: That road underdog rule applies in this one as well. If you don't think the Steelers can win outright, you have to take Indianapolis and give the points. The Colts blew them out 26-7 in the regular season, and the Steelers are happy just to be in the second round. Pittsburgh's off-season should have started after last weekend's battle with the Bengals, but an injury to Carson Palmer only delayed the inevitable. I'm betting on another route; Colts win by two touchdowns.

Carolina (+3) at Chicago

STEVE: The monsters of the midway will face off against the southern shutdown D. If the Panthers implore the same philosophy against the Bears as they did against Eli and the Giants, Rex Grossman will be very familiar with the dirt of the backfield and 3rd down & 12. The Panthers will shutdown the almost invisible Bears offense and Steve Smith will streak down the sideline as the Panthers secure their birth in the NFC championship game.

KEVIN: The Bears are second in the league in total defense and no. 1 in points allowed. Opposing teams have scored an astoundingly low 12.6 points a game on the Bears in the regular season. The Panthers won't even get that many on the board. Chicago 20, Carolina 9.



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